PJM Predicts Adequate Summer Power Supply As Other US Grids Are More Stressed
PJM Interconnection, the largest US electricity grid operator, plans an adequate supply to meet the electricity needs of its 65 million customers this summer.
PJM, which serves 13 states and the District of Columbia, expects peak demand of about 149,000 MW this summer, but has performed reliability studies at loads greater than 155,000 MW.
Last year’s peak demand on the grid was around 144,000 MW, which occurred on July 20. PJM noted that the Covid-19 pandemic had an impact on demand last year. PJM predicts higher demand this summer as the impacts of the pandemic on demand have eased and warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected.
“Planning and preparation are essential,” said CEO Manu Asthana. “PJM and our members continuously coordinate and prepare for peak operations throughout the year.”
PJM said its all-time record for one-day electricity consumption was 165,563 MW, set in the summer of 2006.
Other parts of the country, however, face a more uncertain outlook this summer due to the expected exceptionally hot and dry conditions and the changing generation makeup of the country.
The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) expects a high or high risk of energy shortages in much of North America this summer. The board, at its quarterly meeting last week, received an overview of NERC’s 2021 summer reliability assessment due for release later this month.
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Areas of California, Texas, New England and the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) face a “high risk” of supply shortages, NERC forecasters found. “The biggest concern in the high risk category is California, where up to 11 GW of additional transfers are expected to be needed by late afternoon to offset the reduction in solar production.
“This contrasts with the 1 GW of transfer required on a normal peak day.”
The California Independent System Operator (CAISO) said last week that it expects “electricity supply conditions for next summer to be in better shape than last year, but the Power grid is always susceptible to stress during extreme heat waves’ across the West.
CAISO said it had purchased additional resources for the power supply and implemented a series of market shifts and policy changes to improve summer readiness.
“However, if heat events similar to those that hit the Western State region last summer occur, energy imported from other states could be limited and the power grid could experience power shortages. supply and possible emergency conditions … “
The Texas Electric Reliability Council (ERCOT), which serves 90% of the state, predicts record electricity demand this summer due to expected hot, dry conditions and continued economic and population growth across the region. ERCOT expects to have a reserve margin of 15.7% for the forecast summer peak demand of 77,144 MW, which would break the current record of 74,820 MW set on August 12, 2019.
NERC CEO Jim Robb cited Winter Storm Uri and the Colonial Pipeline Cyberattack as evidence of the growing and multifactorial risks facing America’s energy system.
“The attack on the colonial pipeline underscores the interconnection of electricity with other infrastructure and is why we need to pay extra attention to the reliability of the pipeline system that provides essential fuel,” said Robb. “If this had happened to a large natural gas pipeline serving electricity generators in extremely cold conditions, the results could have been catastrophic.”