Mortgage rates today, September 11, and rate forecasts for next week
Today’s Mortgage and Refinance Rates
Average mortgage rates edged down yesterday. But they barely budged over the week as the ups and downs continue but cancel each other out.
I don’t see a good reason to think that will change over the next seven days. So i will predict it mortgage rates next week can hardly change again. Unless, of course, something unexpected happens.
This is all good. Because these rates are stuck very close to the all-time low. And everyone had time to lock in at an ultra-low rate.
Find and Lock in a Low Rate (Sep 11, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
|Conventional 30 years fixed||2.808%||2.808%||+ 0.03%|
|Conventional 15 years fixed||1.99%||1.99%||Unchanged|
|Conventional 20 years fixed||2,391%||2,391%||Unchanged|
|Conventional 10 years fixed||1,848%||1,892%||Unchanged|
|30-year fixed FHA||2.688%||3.343%||Unchanged|
|15 years fixed FHA||2,389%||2.989%||+ 0.01%|
|5/1 ARM FHA||2.5%||3.213%||Unchanged|
|Fixed VA over 30 years||2.25%||2,421%||Unchanged|
|VA fixed 15 years||2,218%||2,539%||Unchanged|
|5/1 ARM VA||2.5%||2,392%||Unchanged|
|Prices are provided by our network of partners and may not reflect the market. Your rate may be different. Click here for a personalized quote. See our pricing assumptions here.|
Find and Lock in a Low Rate (Sep 11, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders change rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest information on the impact of the coronavirus on your home loan, click here.
Should you lock in a mortgage rate today?
According to Freddie Mac’s Weekly Archives, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates have recently been effectively dormant. Since August 5, they have fluctuated from a low of 2.86% to a high of 2.88%. Indeed, they have had a remarkably limited range since mid-April: from 2.93% to 3%. If they were human, they would be on a heart monitor.
But they are just sleeping. And the longer they do this, the more likely they are to have a sudden movement when they wake up. Of course, then they could fall. But most economists predict a rise.
My personal recommendations therefore remain:
- LOCK if the closure 7 days
- LOCK if closing 15 days
- LOCK if the closure 30 days
- FLOAT if closing 45 days
- FLOAT if closing 60 days
However, with so much uncertainty right now, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine, if not better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
What changes current mortgage rates
What changes current mortgage rates? Not a lot.
But sooner or later they will have to move. And, right now, they seem more likely to be triggered by one or more of the three obvious triggers.
1. COVID-19 Delta variant
The most recent wave of the coronavirus took many by surprise. And deaths rose 29% in the 14 days to September 10, according to the New York Times (paywall). But there are signs that things could start to ease, with new cases reported during this period down 7%.
So far, this latest wave has had only a limited impact on the US economy. And, if this continues, it may have little influence on mortgage rates. But, if that changes – or if an even more virulent new variant emerges – it could push mortgage rates further down.
The Federal Reserve currently holds mortgage-backed securities (MBS, the type of bond that largely determines mortgage rates) worth $ 2.4 trillion. And it continues to buy it at the rate of $ 45 billion per month. This distorts the market and keeps mortgage rates artificially low.
The Fed has already signaled that it plans to slow down those purchases this year and stop them next. And, when it does, mortgage rates are likely to rise, perhaps significantly.
He may well announce his plans at his next press conference scheduled for September 22. Certainly, some influential voices within the Fed are still asking for it, despite a disappointing employment report last week. But, if cooler opinions prevail, an announcement will likely come at one of two events, scheduled for early November or mid-December.
3. Debt ceiling
Earlier this week, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wrote to Congress warning it the government would be strapped for cash next month if lawmakers did not raise the debt ceiling. As far as I know, the United States is the only advanced country that has a debt ceiling. Because that does not allow new expenses. All it does is provide the government with the money it needs to fulfill the commitments that Congress has already authorized.
The last time Congress pushed the ceiling over the edge was in 2021. As a result, interest rates rose and the country’s credit rating was reduced. In fact, he never failed to increase it, as it would lead to “Financial Armageddon,” in the words of Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi this week.
It is very likely that Congress will also raise the cap this time around. Because failure would see the US government default on its debts and obligations, which is unthinkable. But it is to be hoped that lawmakers are not tempted to play political games with it to the point of damaging the economy.
Economic reports next week
There are a few important economic reports this week. These include three that measure inflation, which is an obsession with investors right now. We will also find out about retail sales in August on Thursday.
Normally, markets are sensitive to these key reports. But for several months now, they have ignored most of them. So it may be that this week barely affects mortgage rates.
None of the other economic reports listed below are likely to cause much movement in the markets unless they include some incredibly good or bad data:
- Tuesday – Consumer Price Index (CPI) and August core CPI (CPI without volatile food and energy prices)
- Wednesday – Import price index, industrial production and capacity utilization, all for August
- Thursday – August retail sales. No more new weekly unemployment insurance claims until September 11.
- Friday – September’s first reading of the Consumer Confidence Index
Tuesday and Thursday are the big days for next week.
Find and Lock in a Low Rate (Sep 11, 2021)
Mortgage interest rate forecasts for next week
No need to change my prediction from last week: “I think mortgage rates next week will be unchanged or barely changed. It is not a guarantee. But that seems the most likely scenario.
Mortgage and refinance rates generally move in tandem. And a growing gap between the two has been largely eliminated by the recent removal of unfavorable refinancing fees from the market.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinancing rates are generally determined by prices in a secondary market (similar to stock or bond markets) where mortgage-backed securities are traded.
And it depends heavily on the economy. Mortgage rates therefore tend to be high when things are going well and low when the economy is struggling.
But you play an important role in determining your own mortgage rate in five ways. And you can significantly affect it by:
- Find Your Best Mortgage Rate – They Vary Dramatically From Lender to Lender
- Increase Your Credit Score – Even a Small Bump Can Make a Big Difference in Your Rate and Payments
- Save the Biggest Down Payment Possible – Lenders love you to have real skin in this game
- Keep your other loans small – The lower your other monthly commitments, the larger the mortgage you can afford
- Choosing Your Mortgage Carefully – Are you better off with a conventional, FHA, VA, USDA, jumbo or whatever loan?
The time spent getting those ducks in a row can earn you lower rates.
Remember, it’s not just a mortgage rate
Be sure to count all of your upcoming homeownership costs when determining how much mortgage you can afford. So focus on your “PITI”. It’s your Pmain (reimburses the amount you borrowed), Iinterest (the loan price), (property) Taxes, and (owners) Iassurance. Our mortgage calculator can help.
Depending on the type of mortgage you have and the amount of your down payment, you may also need to pay for mortgage default insurance. And that can easily reach three digits each month.
But there are other potential costs. You will therefore have to pay homeowners association dues if you choose to live somewhere with an HOA. And, wherever you live, you should expect repair and maintenance costs. There is no owner to call in case of a problem!
Finally, you will have a hard time forgetting the closing costs. You can see which are reflected in the Annual Percentage Rate (APR) that will be shown to you. Because it effectively spreads them out over the life of your loan, making it higher than your normal mortgage rate.
But you may be able to get help with those closing costs. and your down payment, especially if you are a first-time buyer. Read:
Down payment assistance programs in each state for 2021
Mortgage rate methodology
Mortgage Reports receive daily rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners. We arrive at an average rate and an APR for each type of loan to display in our graph. Because we average a range of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we average the rates for the same types of loans. For example, fixed FHA with fixed FHA. The result is a good overview of daily rates and how they have changed over time.